{"name":"Black-market estimates by market","description":"Every published estimate of the licensed (channelised) share of a gambling market that could be traced to a primary document: the figure, what it counts (players, visits or money), how it was measured, who commissioned it, the period and scope, and the source. The black-market share is the remainder. Figures are not comparable across measures or scopes.","source":"https://igamerhq.com/insights/essays/how-big-is-the-gambling-black-market","publisher":"iGamer","license":"https://igamerhq.com/terms","asOf":"2026-10-26","note":"Every published estimate of the licensed ('channelised') share of a gambling market that iGamer could trace to a primary document, with what it counts, how, and who commissioned it. Shares are of the licensed market; the black-market share is the remainder. Figures are not comparable across measures or scopes, which is the point. Verified in full on the asOf date.","sources":[{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"},{"title":"Kansspelautoriteit — Monitoringsrapportage online kansspelen, voorjaar 2026","url":"https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/blg-1252342.pdf","verify":"manual"},{"title":"Kansspelautoriteit and Ministry of Finance — Monitor effecten verhoging kansspelbelasting (June 2026)","url":"https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/sites/default/files/2026-06/Monitor%20effecten%20verhoging%20Kansspelbelasting%20-%20juni%202026.pdf"},{"title":"GGL — „Schwarzmarkt“-Studie bestätigt: Regulierte Online-Angebote machen den Großteil des Marktes aus (16 March 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/schwarzmarkt-studie-bestaetigt-regulierte-online-angebote-machen-den-grossteil-des-marktes-aus"},{"title":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL — Die Vermessung des Schwarzmarktes für Onlineglücksspiel in Deutschland (final report, updated 27 April 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260427_Die_Vermessung_des_Schwarzmarktes_fur_Onlineglucksspiel_in_Deutschland_Endbericht.pdf"},{"title":"Spillemyndigheden — Spilmarkedet i tal 2025","url":"https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/yogdbicq/spilmarkedet-i-tal-2025.pdf"},{"title":"Spillemyndigheden — Årsrapport 2024 (March 2025)","url":"https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/m3tho4zz/arsrapport-2024-spillemyndigheden.pdf"},{"title":"Gambling Commission — Illegal online gambling: challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market (executive summary, 6 November 2025)","url":"https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/report/illegal-online-gambling-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the-illegal/executive-summary-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the-illegal-gambling"},{"title":"Gambling Commission — the channelisation-rate approach (same report)","url":"https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/report/illegal-online-gambling-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the-illegal/channelisation-rate-approach-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the"},{"title":"ANJ — Étude sur l'offre illégale des jeux d'argent et de hasard en ligne en France en 2023 (PwC, November 2023)","url":"https://anj.fr/sites/default/files/2023-11/offre%20ill%C3%A9gale.pdf"},{"title":"AFJEL — Baromètre 2025 de l'offre illégale de jeux en ligne (5 November 2025)","url":"https://afjel.fr/2025/11/05/barometre-afjel-sur-loffre-illegale-de-jeux-en-ligne-la-france-depasse-le-stade-critique-des-54-millions-de-joueurs-en-2025/"},{"title":"Betting and Gaming Council — New report highlights potential impact of increased tax and regulation (10 November 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/news/new-report-highlights-potential-impact-of-increased-tax-and-regulation-on-uk-betting-and-gaming-market"},{"title":"PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council — Impact of the taxation and regulatory environment on European online betting and gaming markets (October 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/uploads/Impact-of-the-taxation-and-regulatory-environment-on-European-online-betting-and-gaming-markets_2025.pdf"},{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"},{"title":"AGCO — Number of Ontarians choosing regulated over unregulated online gaming sites surges to 91%: Ipsos study (21 May 2026)","url":"https://www.agco.ca/en/news/number-ontarians-choosing-regulated-over-unregulated-online-gaming-sites-surges-91-ipsos-study"},{"title":"iGaming Ontario and AGCO — Channelization report, Ipsos (15 April 2025)","url":"https://www.agco.ca/sites/default/files/2025-04/iGO-AGCO-Channelization-Report-Ipsos-April-15-2025.pdf"}],"estimates":[{"id":"se-2025-si-assessment-competitive","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Competitive online market (casino, betting, bingo, poker)","measure":"turnover","method":"regulator-assessment","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (own assessment, averaging its indicators)","low":84,"high":84,"label":"84%","note":"The regulator's headline for 2025, one point below its 85% assessment for 2024. It averages two indicators that disagree: a player survey (89%) and a turnover estimate built from web traffic (78%). The report says its indicators are uncertain and rest on assumptions.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-survey-competitive","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Competitive online market (casino, betting, bingo, poker)","measure":"turnover","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (Verian player survey, self-reported spend)","low":89,"high":89,"label":"89%","note":"Share of self-reported turnover placed with licensed sites. The same survey puts 94% of players with licensed operators.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-traffic-competitive","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Competitive online market (casino, betting, bingo, poker)","measure":"turnover","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (web-traffic visits adjusted for turnover per visit)","low":78,"high":78,"label":"78%","note":"Visits to licensed and unlicensed sites from an SEO tool, weighted by what a visit is worth. Raw visits, before weighting, give 61% including skin-betting sites and 73% without them.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-assessment-casino","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Online casino","measure":"turnover","method":"regulator-assessment","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (own assessment)","low":81,"high":81,"label":"81%","note":"The widest gap in the report: 93% by survey, 68% by traffic-adjusted turnover, 54% by raw visits, 81% published.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-survey-casino","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Online casino","measure":"turnover","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (Verian player survey, self-reported spend)","low":93,"high":93,"label":"93%","note":"Self-reported online-casino turnover with licensed sites. By players the survey gives 91%.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-traffic-casino","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Online casino","measure":"turnover","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (web-traffic visits adjusted for turnover per visit)","low":68,"high":68,"label":"68%","note":"Online-casino turnover estimated from web traffic. The regulator notes the licensed share is far lower for casino than for betting (95% on the same method).","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-visits-casino","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Online casino","measure":"visits","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (share of visits to licensed online-casino sites)","low":54,"high":54,"label":"54%","note":"Raw visit share before any adjustment for spend per visit. A visit is not a bet, and the regulator does not publish this as its channelisation rate; it is the input the 68% is built from.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2025-si-assessment-betting","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2025","scope":"Online betting","measure":"turnover","method":"regulator-assessment","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spelinspektionen (own assessment)","low":96,"high":96,"label":"96%","note":"98% by survey and 95% by traffic-adjusted turnover: betting channels far better than casino under the same licence.","source":{"title":"Spelinspektionen — Kanaliseringsgrad på den svenska spelmarknaden 2025 (15 June 2026)","url":"https://www.spelinspektionen.se/globalassets/dokument/rapport-o-remiss/kanaliseringsgrad-pa-den-svenska-spelmarknaden-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"se-2024-h2gc-bgc","market":"Sweden","countryCode":"SE","flagEmoji":"🇸🇪","regulatorSlug":"sweden","period":"2024","scope":"Online betting and gaming (turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"industry","author":"H2 Gambling Capital market model, published by PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council","low":65,"high":65,"label":"65%","note":"The figure behind the 'Sweden 35% black market' headline of November 2025. PwC's own comparison page sets it beside the 82% it records for Spelinspektionen's 2024 estimate and keeps the H2GC value 'to ensure consistency' across jurisdictions.","source":{"title":"PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council — Impact of the taxation and regulatory environment on European online betting and gaming markets (October 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/uploads/Impact-of-the-taxation-and-regulatory-environment-on-European-online-betting-and-gaming-markets_2025.pdf"}},{"id":"nl-2025h2-ksa-players-strict","market":"Netherlands","countryCode":"NL","flagEmoji":"🇳🇱","regulatorSlug":"netherlands","period":"H2 2025","scope":"Online gambling (players)","measure":"players","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Kansspelautoriteit (GfK consumer panel)","low":91,"high":91,"label":"91%","note":"Players who use both legal and illegal sites counted as not channelled. The panel holds about 6,000 people, of whom only about 300 are gamblers, so the authority warns against extrapolating.","source":{"title":"Kansspelautoriteit — Monitoringsrapportage online kansspelen, voorjaar 2026","url":"https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/blg-1252342.pdf","verify":"manual"}},{"id":"nl-2025h2-ksa-players-wide","market":"Netherlands","countryCode":"NL","flagEmoji":"🇳🇱","regulatorSlug":"netherlands","period":"H2 2025","scope":"Online gambling (players)","measure":"players","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Kansspelautoriteit (GfK consumer panel)","low":95,"high":95,"label":"95%","note":"Same data, with players who use both legal and illegal sites counted as channelled. The Ksa calls both choices defensible and publishes both; the slow decline comes from players who only play illegally.","source":{"title":"Kansspelautoriteit — Monitoringsrapportage online kansspelen, voorjaar 2026","url":"https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/blg-1252342.pdf","verify":"manual"}},{"id":"nl-2025h2-ksa-ggr","market":"Netherlands","countryCode":"NL","flagEmoji":"🇳🇱","regulatorSlug":"netherlands","period":"H2 2025","scope":"Online gambling (gross gaming revenue)","measure":"ggr","method":"search-volume","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Kansspelautoriteit (illegal GGR inferred from Google Ads search volume)","low":53,"high":53,"label":"53%","note":"Down from 56% in the previous half-year. Three operators with implausible search-volume spikes were removed on suspicion of manipulation; uncorrected, the series showed the illegal market quadrupling in months. The Ksa notes illegal players appear to lose considerably more per head than legal ones.","source":{"title":"Kansspelautoriteit — Monitoringsrapportage online kansspelen, voorjaar 2026","url":"https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/blg-1252342.pdf","verify":"manual"}},{"id":"nl-2024-h2gc-bgc","market":"Netherlands","countryCode":"NL","flagEmoji":"🇳🇱","regulatorSlug":"netherlands","period":"2024","scope":"Online betting and gaming (gross gaming revenue)","measure":"ggr","method":"model","commissioner":"industry","author":"H2 Gambling Capital market model, published by PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council","low":61,"high":61,"label":"61%","note":"PwC's comparison page sets this beside the 49% it records for the Kansspelautoriteit's 2024 GGR estimate: here the industry-published figure is the more optimistic one. The BGC release rounds the Dutch black market to 37%.","source":{"title":"PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council — Impact of the taxation and regulatory environment on European online betting and gaming markets (October 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/uploads/Impact-of-the-taxation-and-regulatory-environment-on-European-online-betting-and-gaming-markets_2025.pdf"}},{"id":"de-2024-ggl-losses","market":"Germany","countryCode":"DE","flagEmoji":"🇩🇪","regulatorSlug":"germany","period":"2024","scope":"Online gambling excluding lotteries (losses)","measure":"losses","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL (panel survey of 2,000 online gamblers)","low":77,"high":77,"label":"77%","note":"22.97% of reported losses went to unlicensed sites, implying unlicensed GGR of about €547 million in 2024. The authors state the panel is not representative of the population and that recall of past spending is unreliable; the GGL reads the result as confirming its earlier assumptions.","source":{"title":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL — Die Vermessung des Schwarzmarktes für Onlineglücksspiel in Deutschland (final report, updated 27 April 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260427_Die_Vermessung_des_Schwarzmarktes_fur_Onlineglucksspiel_in_Deutschland_Endbericht.pdf"}},{"id":"de-2024-ggl-stakes","market":"Germany","countryCode":"DE","flagEmoji":"🇩🇪","regulatorSlug":"germany","period":"2024","scope":"Online gambling excluding lotteries (stakes)","measure":"turnover","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL (panel survey of 2,000 online gamblers)","low":78,"high":78,"label":"78%","note":"22.4% of reported stakes went to unlicensed sites, against 20.3% of provider mentions: the unlicensed share grows as the measure moves from people to money.","source":{"title":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL — Die Vermessung des Schwarzmarktes für Onlineglücksspiel in Deutschland (final report, updated 27 April 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260427_Die_Vermessung_des_Schwarzmarktes_fur_Onlineglucksspiel_in_Deutschland_Endbericht.pdf"}},{"id":"de-2024-ggl-mentions","market":"Germany","countryCode":"DE","flagEmoji":"🇩🇪","regulatorSlug":"germany","period":"2024","scope":"Online gambling excluding lotteries (provider mentions)","measure":"players","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL (panel survey of 2,000 online gamblers)","low":80,"high":80,"label":"80%","note":"79.7% of the 4,027 operators named by respondents were licensed. Users of unlicensed operators reported higher monthly stakes on average.","source":{"title":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL — Die Vermessung des Schwarzmarktes für Onlineglücksspiel in Deutschland (final report, updated 27 April 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260427_Die_Vermessung_des_Schwarzmarktes_fur_Onlineglucksspiel_in_Deutschland_Endbericht.pdf"}},{"id":"de-2023-leipzig-panel","market":"Germany","countryCode":"DE","flagEmoji":"🇩🇪","regulatorSlug":"germany","period":"March 2023","scope":"Online gambling (site usage in a metered panel)","measure":"visits","method":"panel","commissioner":"industry","author":"Murai and Schnabl, University of Leipzig, for the DOCV and DSWV trade bodies (Nielsen online panel of about 25,000 consumers)","low":51,"high":51,"label":"51%","note":"Licensed share of online-gambling usage in a metered consumer panel, as summarised in the GGL's own review of methods. Commissioned by the online-casino and sports-betting associations; the regulator questioned the approach.","source":{"title":"Blockchain Research Lab for the GGL — Die Vermessung des Schwarzmarktes für Onlineglücksspiel in Deutschland (final report, updated 27 April 2026)","url":"https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260427_Die_Vermessung_des_Schwarzmarktes_fur_Onlineglucksspiel_in_Deutschland_Endbericht.pdf"}},{"id":"dk-2024-dga-traffic","market":"Denmark","countryCode":"DK","flagEmoji":"🇩🇰","regulatorSlug":"denmark","period":"2024","scope":"Online gambling (web traffic from players in Denmark)","measure":"visits","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spillemyndigheden (annual report 2024)","low":91,"high":91,"label":"91%","note":"Target: at least 85% of web traffic from players in Denmark to licensed sites; result 91%. The authority states the 2024 rate is not comparable with earlier years because an estimate for app traffic was added and the traffic provider changed its algorithm.","source":{"title":"Spillemyndigheden — Årsrapport 2024 (March 2025)","url":"https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/m3tho4zz/arsrapport-2024-spillemyndigheden.pdf"}},{"id":"dk-2025-dga-withheld","market":"Denmark","countryCode":"DK","flagEmoji":"🇩🇰","regulatorSlug":"denmark","period":"2025","scope":"Online gambling","measure":"none","method":"none","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Spillemyndigheden (Spilmarkedet i tal 2025)","low":null,"high":null,"label":"withheld","note":"The channelisation rate that used to appear in 'Spilmarkedet i tal' was left out of the 2025 edition while the authority quality-assures its figures. A separate channelisation report is promised later in 2026, and the cross-country spend comparison was dropped for the same reason.","source":{"title":"Spillemyndigheden — Spilmarkedet i tal 2025","url":"https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/yogdbicq/spilmarkedet-i-tal-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"dk-2024-h2gc-bgc","market":"Denmark","countryCode":"DK","flagEmoji":"🇩🇰","regulatorSlug":"denmark","period":"2024","scope":"Online betting and gaming (turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"industry","author":"H2 Gambling Capital market model, published by the Betting and Gaming Council","low":89,"high":89,"label":"89%","note":"The BGC release groups Spain and Denmark at 'only around 11%' of gambling outside the regulated sector.","source":{"title":"Betting and Gaming Council — New report highlights potential impact of increased tax and regulation (10 November 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/news/new-report-highlights-potential-impact-of-increased-tax-and-regulation-on-uk-betting-and-gaming-market"}},{"id":"gb-2025-gc-none","market":"Great Britain","countryCode":"GB","flagEmoji":"🇬🇧","regulatorSlug":"united-kingdom","period":"2025","scope":"Online gambling","measure":"none","method":"none","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Gambling Commission (Illegal online gambling: challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market, 6 November 2025)","low":null,"high":null,"label":"no estimate","note":"'We are not yet in a position to make a robust and reliable estimate of the size of this market.' The survey approach was dropped as too unreliable; on £6.9 billion of legal online yield, a half-point error in a channelisation rate moves the implied figure by £34.5 million. The Commission urges caution over third-party point estimates with no transparent methodology or margin of error.","source":{"title":"Gambling Commission — Illegal online gambling: challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market (executive summary, 6 November 2025)","url":"https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/report/illegal-online-gambling-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the-illegal/executive-summary-challenges-of-estimating-the-size-of-the-illegal-gambling"}},{"id":"gb-2025-h2gc-bgc","market":"Great Britain","countryCode":"GB","flagEmoji":"🇬🇧","regulatorSlug":"united-kingdom","period":"2025","scope":"Online betting and gaming (turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"industry","author":"H2 Gambling Capital market model, published by the Betting and Gaming Council","low":95,"high":95,"label":"95%","note":"'Around 5 per cent' of online betting and gaming on unlicensed sites, up from an estimated 3.3% in 2021.","source":{"title":"Betting and Gaming Council — New report highlights potential impact of increased tax and regulation (10 November 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/news/new-report-highlights-potential-impact-of-increased-tax-and-regulation-on-uk-betting-and-gaming-market"}},{"id":"gb-2024-frontier-bgc","market":"Great Britain","countryCode":"GB","flagEmoji":"🇬🇧","regulatorSlug":"united-kingdom","period":"2024","scope":"Online betting and gaming (turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"survey","commissioner":"industry","author":"Frontier Economics for the Betting and Gaming Council (customer survey plus operator data), as recorded in PwC's comparison table","low":98,"high":98,"label":"98%","note":"Estimated from a customer survey, operator data and secondary data. PwC shows it beside H2GC's 94% for the same year.","source":{"title":"PwC for the Betting and Gaming Council — Impact of the taxation and regulatory environment on European online betting and gaming markets (October 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/uploads/Impact-of-the-taxation-and-regulatory-environment-on-European-online-betting-and-gaming-markets_2025.pdf"}},{"id":"fr-2023-anj-pwc","market":"France","countryCode":"FR","flagEmoji":"🇫🇷","regulatorSlug":"france","period":"2023","scope":"All gambling, online and land-based, including lotteries (gross gaming revenue)","measure":"ggr","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"regulator","author":"PwC for the Autorité nationale des jeux (web-traffic analysis plus a web panel of 11,000 adults)","low":89,"high":95,"label":"89–95%","note":"Illegal online GGR estimated at €748 million to €1.5 billion, 5–11% of the whole French gambling market. Measured against all gambling, not online alone, so not comparable with online-only shares. 510 sites and 14 apps were found serving France; 35% of illegal-site users said they used a VPN.","source":{"title":"ANJ — Étude sur l'offre illégale des jeux d'argent et de hasard en ligne en France en 2023 (PwC, November 2023)","url":"https://anj.fr/sites/default/files/2023-11/offre%20ill%C3%A9gale.pdf"}},{"id":"fr-2025-afjel-pwc","market":"France","countryCode":"FR","flagEmoji":"🇫🇷","regulatorSlug":"france","period":"2025","scope":"Online gambling (gross gaming revenue)","measure":"ggr","method":"web-traffic","commissioner":"industry","author":"PwC for the AFJEL, the association of licensed online operators, updating the ANJ method","low":null,"high":null,"label":"below 50% (claimed)","note":"Illegal online GGR put at €2 billion and 5.4 million people on illegal sites; the association says the illegal market has overtaken the regulated online market. A change of scope, online only instead of all gambling, turns the ANJ's 5–11% into a claimed majority on the same method.","source":{"title":"AFJEL — Baromètre 2025 de l'offre illégale de jeux en ligne (5 November 2025)","url":"https://afjel.fr/2025/11/05/barometre-afjel-sur-loffre-illegale-de-jeux-en-ligne-la-france-depasse-le-stade-critique-des-54-millions-de-joueurs-en-2025/"}},{"id":"fr-2024-h2gc-bgc","market":"France","countryCode":"FR","flagEmoji":"🇫🇷","regulatorSlug":"france","period":"2024","scope":"Online betting and gaming (turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"industry","author":"H2 Gambling Capital market model, published by the Betting and Gaming Council","low":43,"high":43,"label":"43%","note":"'France (57% black market)' in the BGC release; PwC's table records the regulator-commissioned PwC study at 73% and H2GC at 78% for 2023, so the 2024 figure also reflects a change in H2GC's own series.","source":{"title":"Betting and Gaming Council — New report highlights potential impact of increased tax and regulation (10 November 2025)","url":"https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/news/new-report-highlights-potential-impact-of-increased-tax-and-regulation-on-uk-betting-and-gaming-market"}},{"id":"no-2025-lt-competitive-money","market":"Norway","countryCode":"NO","flagEmoji":"🇳🇴","regulatorSlug":"norway","period":"2025","scope":"Games in direct competition with foreign sites (net turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Lotteritilsynet (Norwegian Gambling Authority)","low":67,"high":72,"label":"67–72%","note":"Foreign operators estimated at 28–33% of the games they compete in (casino, sports, bingo, scratch cards, horses), on a Norwegian market of NOK 5.9–6.2 billion net turnover. The authority writes that channelling measured in money is harder to calculate than in players.","source":{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"}},{"id":"no-2025-lt-total-money","market":"Norway","countryCode":"NO","flagEmoji":"🇳🇴","regulatorSlug":"norway","period":"2025","scope":"Whole gambling market (net turnover)","measure":"turnover","method":"model","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Lotteritilsynet (Norwegian Gambling Authority)","low":86,"high":88,"label":"86–88%","note":"Foreign operators estimated at 12–14% of the whole market once lotteries and other monopoly-only games are included. Scope alone moves the licensed share by about 18 points.","source":{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"}},{"id":"no-2025-nt-casino","market":"Norway","countryCode":"NO","flagEmoji":"🇳🇴","regulatorSlug":"norway","period":"2025","scope":"Online casino games (market share)","measure":"turnover","method":"operator-estimate","commissioner":"operator","author":"Norsk Tipping, the state operator, in its own report to the regulator","low":65,"high":65,"label":"65%","note":"Norsk Tipping's own estimate of its share of casino games against foreign operators: 65% in 2025, 63% in 2024, 62% in 2023.","source":{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"}},{"id":"no-2025-nt-sports","market":"Norway","countryCode":"NO","flagEmoji":"🇳🇴","regulatorSlug":"norway","period":"2025","scope":"Online sports betting (market share)","measure":"turnover","method":"operator-estimate","commissioner":"operator","author":"Norsk Tipping, the state operator, in its own report to the regulator","low":88,"high":88,"label":"88%","note":"Norsk Tipping's own estimate of its sports-betting share: 88% in 2025, 87% in 2024, 85% in 2023.","source":{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"}},{"id":"no-2025-nr-horses","market":"Norway","countryCode":"NO","flagEmoji":"🇳🇴","regulatorSlug":"norway","period":"2025","scope":"Horse-race betting (market share)","measure":"turnover","method":"operator-estimate","commissioner":"operator","author":"Norsk Rikstoto, the horse-racing monopoly, in its own report to the regulator","low":97,"high":97,"label":"97%","note":"Norsk Rikstoto's own assessment of its channelling rate, with a note that indirect competition from unregulated operators exists.","source":{"title":"Lotteritilsynet — Ansvarlegheit og kanalisering hos Norsk Tipping og Norsk Rikstoto (March 2026)","url":"https://lottstift.no/app/uploads/2026/05/26_00403-5-Ansvarlegheit-og-kanalisering-hos-Norsk-Tipping-og-Norsk-Rikstoto-mars-2026-korri-1377306_1_1.pdf"}},{"id":"on-2026-agco-ipsos","market":"Ontario","countryCode":"CA-ON","flagEmoji":"🇨🇦","regulatorSlug":"ontario","period":"2026","scope":"Online gambling (players in the past three months)","measure":"players","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Ipsos for the AGCO and iGaming Ontario (2,012 adults 19+, fieldwork 30 March to 20 April 2026)","low":91,"high":91,"label":"91%","note":"91.1% of Ontario online gamblers used a regulated site; 8.9% used only unregulated sites. A share of players, not of money, and the release says so.","source":{"title":"AGCO — Number of Ontarians choosing regulated over unregulated online gaming sites surges to 91%: Ipsos study (21 May 2026)","url":"https://www.agco.ca/en/news/number-ontarians-choosing-regulated-over-unregulated-online-gaming-sites-surges-91-ipsos-study"}},{"id":"on-2025-agco-ipsos","market":"Ontario","countryCode":"CA-ON","flagEmoji":"🇨🇦","regulatorSlug":"ontario","period":"2025","scope":"Online gambling (players in the past three months)","measure":"players","method":"survey","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Ipsos for the AGCO and iGaming Ontario (same method each spring)","low":84,"high":84,"label":"84%","note":"83.7% in 2025, down from 86.4% in 2024 and 85.3% in 2023 on the same survey, before the jump to 91.1% in 2026.","source":{"title":"iGaming Ontario and AGCO — Channelization report, Ipsos (15 April 2025)","url":"https://www.agco.ca/sites/default/files/2025-04/iGO-AGCO-Channelization-Report-Ipsos-April-15-2025.pdf"}},{"id":"on-pre-2022-gov-estimate","market":"Ontario","countryCode":"CA-ON","flagEmoji":"🇨🇦","regulatorSlug":"ontario","period":"before April 2022","scope":"Online gambling before the regulated market opened (basis unstated)","measure":"activity","method":"model","commissioner":"regulator","author":"Government of Ontario estimate, as cited by the AGCO","low":30,"high":30,"label":"30%","note":"The province estimated that 70% of online gambling took place on unregulated sites before the market launched in April 2022. The basis of the estimate is not stated in the release.","source":{"title":"AGCO — Number of Ontarians choosing regulated over unregulated online gaming sites surges to 91%: Ipsos study (21 May 2026)","url":"https://www.agco.ca/en/news/number-ontarians-choosing-regulated-over-unregulated-online-gaming-sites-surges-91-ipsos-study"}}]}