Will Brazil's betting-advertising bill (PL 2.985/2023) become law by 31 December 2027?
30%
Base rate — the comparison class
New class: of the 6 gambling policy moves our regulator corpus recorded at the proposal/debate stage in its 2025 entries — Pennsylvania's skill-games taxation, Germany's turnover-tax reform debate, France's online-casino legalisation, Brazil's higher betting tax, South Africa's remote-gambling bill, and the Philippines' PAGCOR privatisation — 1 (Brazil's tax, enacted as Complementary Law 224/2025) had become binding law by opening. (1 of 6 ≈ 17%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 30% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 1/6 base rate, adjusted up (+0.13, to step): PL 2.985/2023 is further along than the class's debate-stage members — it passed the full Senate on 28 May 2025 — and advertising pressure keeps building (a second restrictions bill, PL 2.470/2026, advanced in Senate committee in September 2026). Kept well below one-in-two because the bill has sat in the Chamber of Deputies since June 2025 with only a special-committee request to show, industry opposition is organised, and the SPA's July 2026 advertising ordinance relieves some of the political urgency. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if a federal law originating from PL 2.985/2023 — the fixed-odds betting advertising restrictions approved by the Senate on 28 May 2025, including as amended, substituted, or with bills attached (apensados) to it in the Chamber of Deputies — is sanctioned and published in the Diário Oficial da União on or before 31 December 2027. Advertising restrictions imposed only by SPA ordinance or another executive act do not count; nor does a different bill with no legislative lineage to PL 2.985/2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolving source: Presidência da República (Planalto) / Diário Oficial da União, with the Câmara dos Deputados bill record for PL 2.985/2023
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