ACCURACY, IN PUBLIC
Track record
We publish every question we ever opened — including the misses — and score ourselves against a naive forecaster who always predicts the historical base rate.
1question resolved
0.00our mean Brier
0.01naive base-rate Brier
-58%error vs naive
Calibration curve
Appears automatically once 30 questions have resolved — a calibration curve on fewer would be noise dressed as rigor.
1 / 30 resolvedEvery resolved question
| question | final p | outcome | brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the UK's RTS 12 deposit-limit requirements take effect on 30 September 2026, with no further slip? | 95% | YES ✅ | 0.00 |
How to read this. The Brier score is the squared error of a probability forecast — 0 is perfect, lower is better. A naive forecaster who always predicts each question’s historical base rate sets the bar; beating it is the entire test. Method and limits: how The Outlook works.