PROBABILISTIC INDUSTRY FORECASTS
The Outlook
Where iGaming is heading — with our accuracy on the record. Every question is pre-registered, resolves against a named primary source, and lands on a public scoreboard. Industry events only — we never forecast game outcomes.
Open questions · 20
Standards🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Will the UK's RTS 12 deposit-limit requirements take effect on 30 September 2026, with no further slip?
95%— opening forecast
resolves by 2026-10-31
StandardsEuropean Union
Will the EU's 24 December 2026 Digital Identity Wallet deadline hold in law?
90%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-01-15
Tax change🇧🇷 Brazil
Will Brazil's betting-operator tax step up to 14% of GGR on 1 January 2027, as scheduled?
90%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-01-31
Market opening🇨🇼 Curaçao
Will Curaçao's LOK transition end on schedule, with supplier licensing fully mandatory from 24 December 2026?
75%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-01-31
Watchlist🇩🇪 Germany
Will Germany's states deliver the GlüStV 2021 evaluation report by its 31 December 2026 deadline?
75%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-01-31
WatchlistMonaco
Will Monaco be off the FATF grey list after the February 2027 plenary?
90%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-02-28
Rule change🇪🇸 Spain
Will Spain's cross-operator joint deposit limits take effect as scheduled on 25 March 2027?
80%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-04-30
WatchlistKenya
Will Kenya be off the FATF grey list after the June 2027 plenary?
25%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-06-30
Market opening🇫🇮 Finland
Will Finland's licensed online gambling market open on schedule on 1 July 2027?
80%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-07-01
Market openingNew Zealand
Will at least one licensed online casino be legally live in New Zealand by 1 July 2027?
80%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-07-01
StandardsEuropean Union
Will the EU's AMLR start applying to gambling operators on 10 July 2027, as scheduled?
90%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-07-31
Rule change🇳🇱 Netherlands
Will the Dutch bill with cross-operator deposit limits open for public consultation by 30 September 2027?
75%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-09-30
Market opening🇮🇪 Ireland
Will the GRAI open applications for B2C remote gaming (online casino) licences by the end of 2027?
75%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-12-31
Rule change🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Will UK financial risk assessments move beyond Stage 1 — a lower trigger threshold in force — by the end of 2027?
40%— opening forecast
resolves by 2027-12-31
Tax change🇸🇪 Sweden
Will Sweden enact a change to its 22% gambling tax with effect during 2027?
20%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-01-15
Tax change🇳🇱 Netherlands
Will the Netherlands change its 37.8% gambling tax with effect on or before 1 January 2028?
45%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-01-15
Rule change🇧🇷 Brazil
Will Brazil's betting-advertising bill (PL 2.985/2023) become law by 31 December 2027?
30%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-01-15
Market openingUnited States
Will any new US state enact online-casino legislation by 31 December 2027?
35%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-01-15
Tax change🇫🇷 France
Will France change its gambling taxes or social levies with effect during 2027?
35%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-01-15
Rule change🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Will the UK government introduce legislation to regulate prize draws and competitions by 17 March 2028?
15%— opening forecast
resolves by 2028-03-17
How to read these numbers. Each probability is an editorial estimate anchored on base rates from our tracked change corpus and moved by dated, cited signals — not a statistical model, and not advice. Method and limits: how The Outlook works.