Will Brazil's betting-operator tax step up to 14% of GGR on 1 January 2027, as scheduled?
90%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 11 enacted gambling tax-rate changes with a statutory effective date tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (Czechia 2024, Sweden 2024, Netherlands 2025 and 2026, Italy 2025, France 2025, Romania 2025, New Jersey 2025, UK Remote Gaming Duty 2026, Brazil's own 13% step 2026, Colombia's 2025 VAT decree), all 11 took effect as legislated. (11 of 11 ≈ 100%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 90% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 11/11 base rate, adjusted down 0.10: an already-enacted second step of a multi-year schedule usually lands, but Brazil's betting-tax schedule remains politically contested and Latin-American gambling-tax steps have drawn constitutional challenges (Colombia's 2026 follow-on decree is under challenge). |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the operator rate on fixed-odds betting gross gaming revenue steps from 13% to 14% with effect on 1 January 2027, as scheduled by Complementary Law 224/2025 — i.e. the schedule is neither repealed, amended, postponed nor judicially suspended with effect on that date. Resolves NO if the 14% step is not in force on 1 January 2027.
Resolving source: Presidência da República (Planalto) — consolidated text of Complementary Law 224/2025 and the Diário Oficial da União
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.