Will Curaçao's LOK transition end on schedule, with supplier licensing fully mandatory from 24 December 2026?
75%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (the class counted on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date; only the UK's RTS 12 slipped. The corpus holds no comparable licensing-regime cut-offs for Curaçao itself — its one LOK entry records an ongoing, high-volatility transition — so this general milestone class is the widest honest anchor. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 75% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate with our maximum downward adjustment (0.15, rounded to step): the LOK rollout itself has a record of moved target dates (the ordinance's entry into force slipped past earlier targets to December 2024, and seal-regime deadlines were extended before expiring in October 2025), and the CGA retains discretion to soften enforcement. Capped because the two-year transition end is written into the LOK and the CGA explicitly confirmed the 24 December 2026 cut-off in June 2026. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the LOK transitional period ends on 24 December 2026 as confirmed by the Curaçao Gaming Authority in June 2026 — supplier licence and supplier registration requirements fully mandatory and enforceable from that date under Article 5.16 LOK — with no extension of the transitional period, new general deadline, or general grace/non-enforcement period announced by the CGA on or before that date. Case-by-case handling of individual pending applications does not count as an extension. Resolves NO if the CGA extends, postpones or generally suspends enforcement of the cut-off.
Resolving source: Curaçao Gaming Authority (gamingcontrolcuracao.org) — official announcements and the licence register
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.