OpenStandardsEuropean Union
Will the EU's AMLR start applying to gambling operators on 10 July 2027, as scheduled?
90%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 24 statutory effective dates tracked across our corpus — the 11 gambling tax-rate changes counted on the Brazil question plus the 13 dated regime milestones counted on the Finland question — 23 took effect as legislated (only the UK's RTS 12 slipped). All 24 are national measures; the corpus holds no EU-regulation application dates, so this is an analogy class and we say so. (23 of 24 ≈ 96%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 90% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 23/24 base rate, adjusted down 0.06 (to step): EU application dates have a postponement precedent our national-measure corpus cannot see (the deforestation regulation's application was pushed back a year in 2024, and the Omnibus simplification agenda has delayed parts of other 2024-era files), and the AML package touches the same simplification politics. The discount stays small because no postponement proposal for the AMLR exists as of opening, AMLA is operational, and directly applicable regulations rarely move this late. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if Regulation (EU) 2024/1624 (the AMLR) applies from 10 July 2027 with providers of gambling services in scope as obliged entities — i.e. no EU legislative act in force on that date postpones the regulation's application date or removes gambling services from the obliged-entity list. Member-state exemptions for specific gambling services under Article 6 AMLR do not affect resolution. Resolves NO if the application date is postponed or gambling services are removed from scope with effect on that date.
Resolving source: EUR-Lex / Official Journal of the European Union — Regulation (EU) 2024/1624, consolidated status and any amending acts
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.