OpenStandardsEuropean Union
Will the EU's 24 December 2026 Digital Identity Wallet deadline hold in law?
90%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 24 statutory effective dates tracked across our corpus — the 11 gambling tax-rate changes counted on the Brazil question plus the 13 dated regime milestones counted on the Finland question — 23 took effect as legislated (only the UK's RTS 12 slipped). All 24 are national gambling measures; the corpus holds no EU-regulation deadlines, so as on the AMLR question this is an analogy class and we say so. (23 of 24 ≈ 96%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 90% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 23/24 base rate, adjusted down 0.06 (to step): the EU has late-moved application dates before (the deforestation regulation), and most member states are visibly behind on wallets — Germany itself has announced a 2 January 2027 launch, nine days past the deadline — which creates political demand for a face-saving postponement. The discount stays small because no postponement proposal exists as of opening, the deadline sits in a regulation already in force, and the EU's usual answer to member-state lateness is infringement pressure, not moving the date. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the Article 5a obligation of Regulation (EU) 2024/1183 — every member state to provide at least one European Digital Identity Wallet within 24 months of the November 2024 implementing acts, i.e. by 24 December 2026 — is intact on that date, with no EU legislative act in force postponing the deadline or suspending the obligation. Member states simply missing the deadline does not resolve NO: the question is whether the legal deadline moves, not whether every state complies. Resolves NO if the deadline is postponed or the obligation suspended by EU law with effect on that date.
Resolving source: EUR-Lex / Official Journal of the European Union — Regulation (EU) 2024/1183, consolidated status and any amending acts
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.