Will France change its gambling taxes or social levies with effect during 2027?
35%
Base rate — the comparison class
In the seven French calendar years 2020–2026, gambling-specific taxation changed with effect in two: the 2020 switch of the tax base from stakes to gross gaming revenue, and the 1 July 2025 increases in social levies plus the new 15% advertising-spend tax under the 2025 social-security financing law. We count calendar years with an effective change, mirroring the Sweden question's class; 2026 counts as unchanged, with no enacted change pending as of opening. (2 of 7 ≈ 29%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 35% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 2/7 base rate, adjusted up (+0.06, to step): the PLFSS 2027 is due within weeks amid France's acute budget crunch, gambling levies were raised as recently as July 2025, and gambling amendments now recur in every budget cycle. Held near base because the 2026 financing laws left gambling-specific rates untouched and France's political instability can stall entire budget packages. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if a change to France's gambling-specific taxation — the social-security levies on games, contests and bets (Articles L137-20 to L137-22 of the Code de la sécurité sociale), the gambling levies of the Code général des impôts, or the tax on gambling advertising spend; any rate or base change, up or down — is enacted and takes effect on any date in calendar 2027, per the promulgated law in the Journal officiel (for example via the PLFSS 2027). General taxes not specific to gambling (such as a CSG change on all capital income) do not count. Resolves NO if no gambling-specific change has effect during 2027; a change enacted in 2027 but effective only in 2028 or later resolves NO.
Resolving source: Légifrance / Journal officiel de la République française — the Code de la sécurité sociale and Code général des impôts as amended
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Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.