Will Germany's states deliver the GlüStV 2021 evaluation report by its 31 December 2026 deadline?
75%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (the class counted on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date. That class counts binding rule effective dates; § 32's deadline is a report deliverable owed jointly by 16 states with no legal consequence for lateness, so this base rate is an optimistic anchor. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 75% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate with our maximum downward adjustment (0.15, rounded to step): a 16-state joint report is a softer commitment than the rule effective dates the class counts, and the commissioned evaluation studies were still landing through late 2025 and 2026. Partially offset by the deadline being written into the treaty itself, the GGL publicly working toward end-2026 (it confirmed its evaluation position in March 2026), and the political need to table the report before treaty-amendment negotiations. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the comprehensive evaluation report required by § 32 of the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021 is published, or officially confirmed as submitted to the states, on or before 31 December 2026 — per the GGL or the states' joint bodies, whatever the report's exact title. Interim or partial evaluation studies do not count; the § 32 report does. Resolves NO if neither publication nor official confirmation of submission has occurred by that date.
Resolving source: Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (gluecksspiel-behoerde.de) — official announcements, with the states' joint resolutions
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.