Will the GRAI open applications for B2C remote gaming (online casino) licences by the end of 2027?
75%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (see the class on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date. This class counts milestones with a fixed date; GRAI's gaming window has been announced only as opening 'throughout 2027 and 2028', with no fixed date — the corpus has no countable class for that, so this fixed-date base rate is an optimistic anchor. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 75% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate with our maximum downward adjustment (0.15, rounded to step): gaming has no committed date, only a two-year window shared with four other licence categories (lotteries, B2B, charitable, philanthropic), and the GRAI is a first-year authority still mid-rollout on betting. Partially offset by the GRAI hitting every announced betting-phase date so far (applications 9 Feb 2026, first remote licences 1 July 2026). |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland officially opens the application window for business-to-consumer remote gaming licences (online casino/gaming, as distinct from betting) on or before 31 December 2027, per a GRAI announcement or the GRAI licensing portal. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolving source: Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (grai.ie) — official announcements and licensing portal
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.