OpenWatchlistKenya
Will Kenya be off the FATF grey list after the June 2027 plenary?
25%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of the 22 jurisdictions under increased monitoring in our June 2026 FATF snapshot, 4 (Bulgaria, Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Monaco) carried FATF's 'action plan substantially complete' determination — the gate a jurisdiction normally passes one-to-two plenaries before delisting. We use that share as a proxy for a listed jurisdiction's likelihood of exiting within roughly a year; Kenya, listed since February 2024, was not among the four. (4 of 22 ≈ 18%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 25% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 4/22 proxy base rate, adjusted up (+0.07, to step): Kenya has three plenaries (October 2026, February 2027, June 2027) to clear the substantially-complete determination and the required on-site visit, it reports most action items addressed with a strong political push to exit, and its betting-heavy market keeps supervision reforms front of queue. Docked by the Financial Reporting Centre's publicly flagged funding shortfall for the 2026/27 exit plan. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if Kenya does not appear in the FATF 'Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring' statement issued at the close of the June 2027 plenary — whether it is delisted at the October 2026, February 2027 or June 2027 plenary. Resolves NO if Kenya appears on that statement. If FATF issues no increased-monitoring statement at a June 2027 plenary, resolution uses the most recent such statement in force on 30 June 2027.
Resolving source: FATF (fatf-gafi.org) — 'Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring' statements
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.