OpenWatchlistMonaco
Will Monaco be off the FATF grey list after the February 2027 plenary?
90%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of the 9 jurisdictions that received FATF's 'action plan substantially complete' initial determination at the February 2025, June 2025 and February 2026 plenaries (Croatia, Mali, Tanzania; Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa; Algeria, Namibia), all 9 passed their on-site visit and were delisted at the very next plenary. Monaco received the same determination at the June 2026 plenary, and this question gives it two plenaries (October 2026, February 2027). New class, counted from FATF plenary statements; it excludes older stuck cases such as Syria, where the on-site visit itself is impossible. (9 of 9 ≈ 100%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 90% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 9/9 base rate, adjusted down 0.10: the recent streak says a substantially-complete determination converts to delisting at the very next plenary, and Monaco has two chances, but its on-site visit date was still unconfirmed as of opening and the determination is initial, not final — FATF must still judge the reforms sustained. No jurisdiction in the class needed the second plenary; we price the residual risk of an on-site slip past February. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if Monaco does not appear in the FATF 'Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring' statement issued at the close of the February 2027 plenary — whether it is delisted at the October 2026 or the February 2027 plenary. Resolves NO if Monaco appears on that statement. If FATF issues no increased-monitoring statement at a February 2027 plenary, resolution uses the most recent such statement in force on 28 February 2027.
Resolving source: FATF (fatf-gafi.org) — 'Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring' statements
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.