Will Spain's cross-operator joint deposit limits take effect as scheduled on 25 March 2027?
80%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (the class counted on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date; only the UK's RTS 12 deposit-limit rules slipped — notably the closest analogue in the class to this question. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 80% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate, adjusted down 0.12: unlike a simple rule effective date, this one depends on a new DGOJ-run central system that every licensed operator must integrate with, and the decree obliges the DGOJ to hand operators a test version six months before entry into force (around 25 September 2026) — an early, checkable failure point; the one slip in our class (UK RTS 12) was exactly a deposit-limit implementation. Capped because the nine-month clock is fixed in the decree itself and default limits mirror the existing per-operator ones. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the joint deposit-limit system established by Real Decreto 520/2026 enters into force on 25 March 2027 as scheduled — nine months after its BOE publication on 25 June 2026 — i.e. no royal decree, ministerial order or judicial ruling postponing the entry into force or suspending the system has effect on that date. Resolves NO otherwise. Technical teething problems after a legally in-force start do not affect resolution; a formally postponed or suspended entry into force does.
Resolving source: Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) — Real Decreto 520/2026 and any amending or suspending provision, with DGOJ announcements
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.