Will the UK's RTS 12 deposit-limit requirements take effect on 30 September 2026, with no further slip?
95%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (the class counted on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date — and the single slip was this very measure, whose original 30 June 2026 date moved to 30 September 2026. This question forecasts whether the re-set date holds. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 95% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate, adjusted up 0.05 to the 0.95 cap: the class's one slip was this measure, but that extension was announced five weeks before the old deadline, and thirteen days out from the new date the Commission's RTS pages still confirm 30 September 2026 with the final wording republished — a second, near-instant extension would be unprecedented in the class. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the updated RTS 12 / RTS 12B requirements — operators must offer gross deposit limits, reserve the term 'deposit limit' for that form, and give it at least equal prominence to other financial limits — come into effect on 30 September 2026 as scheduled, i.e. the Gambling Commission has announced no further extension, postponement or suspension with effect on that date. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolving source: UK Gambling Commission (gamblingcommission.gov.uk) — Remote Gambling and Software Technical Standards pages and official announcements
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.