Will the UK government introduce legislation to regulate prize draws and competitions by 17 March 2028?
15%
Base rate — the comparison class
New class: of the 3 recent UK gambling-adjacent interventions handled voluntary-first under a stated or implied statutory threat — the 2019 whistle-to-whistle TV betting-ad ban, the 2022 loot-box response opting for industry-led protections, and the 2023 voluntary Premier League front-of-shirt sponsorship withdrawal — none was followed by government legislation within roughly two and a half years. DCMS published the voluntary prize-draw code on 20 November 2025 with the same conditional threat attached. (0 of 3 ≈ 0%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 15% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 0/3 base rate with our maximum upward adjustment (+0.15): every recent voluntary-first UK gambling intervention stayed voluntary over a comparable window, but this code is the first where DCMS put the statutory threat in writing ('the success of this Code will determine whether the Government decides to take further action, including legislation'), and the code's first compliance readings — signatories had to implement by 20 May 2026 — fall inside the question window. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if a government bill containing statutory regulation of paid prize draws or prize competitions — licensing, statutory consumer-protection duties, or bringing them within Gambling Act scope — receives a first reading in either House of Parliament on or before 17 March 2028. A government-sponsored amendment adding such provisions to a pending bill counts; private members' bills without government backing do not. Resolves NO if no such bill or amendment has been introduced by that date.
Resolving source: UK Parliament (bills.parliament.uk) — bill records, with gov.uk / DCMS announcements
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.