Will UK financial risk assessments move beyond Stage 1 — a lower trigger threshold in force — by the end of 2027?
40%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of the 4 major remote-gambling measures from the 2023 White Paper tracked on our UK profile — online slots stake limits, the statutory levy, RTS 12 deposit-limit requirements, and financial risk assessments — 2 were fully in force within three years of the White Paper (stake limits, levy); RTS 12 slipped past its committed date to September 2026 and financial risk assessments had not started. The class is small, so we count whole measures rather than stages and say so. (2 of 4 ≈ 50%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 40% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 2/4 base rate, adjusted down 0.10: fourteen months after the pilot ended, Stage 1 still has no confirmed start date, interim thresholds await further engagement with implementation groups, and the Commission is explicitly deferring enforcement — all signs of a deliberately slow rollout that make a sub-GBP 5,000 threshold in force within 2027 the less likely branch. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if, on or before 31 December 2027, the Gambling Commission has financial risk assessments in force for any licensee cohort at a net-deposit trigger threshold lower than the Stage 1 level (GBP 5,000 in a rolling 24 hours for customers over 25), per Gambling Commission publication. Resolves NO otherwise — including if Stage 1 itself has not commenced by then.
Resolving source: UK Gambling Commission (gamblingcommission.gov.uk) — official announcements and consultation responses
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.