VoidMarket openingUnited States
Will any new US state enact online-casino legislation by 31 December 2027?
Void. Voided because the question was mis-specified when it was registered. Maine's LD 1164 (Public Law 2025, chapter 538), which makes Internet gaming such as blackjack and roulette lawful when offered by the Wabanaki Nations, became law without the governor's signature on 11 January 2026, eight months before the question opened on 17 September 2026. A state beyond the seven listed had therefore already enacted online-casino legislation, the event could no longer be forecast, and the opening base-rate note ('none has since Rhode Island's June 2023 law') missed it. The forecasts on this question are not scored. Excluded from scoring; kept visible for the record.
35%
Base rate — the comparison class
New class: of the 7 complete calendar years 2019–2025, 3 saw at least one US state enact online-casino legislation — 2019 (West Virginia, Michigan), 2021 (Connecticut), 2023 (Rhode Island) — and none has since Rhode Island's June 2023 law. Counted from state session laws; our corpus profiles all seven current iCasino states. (3 of 7 ≈ 43%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 35% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 3/7 base rate, adjusted down (−0.08, to step): the drought is now three legislative years long, 2026 sessions mostly closed without movement (Maryland's bill died again), and legislative attention has shifted to sweepstakes bans and prediction markets. Partially offset by the roughly 15-month window covering the full 2027 sessions — every enactment year in the class was an odd year — with live frameworks pending in New York, Illinois and Indiana. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if at least one US state beyond the seven with legal commercial online casino as of opening (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island) enacts a law authorising real-money online casino gaming — signed by the governor or otherwise becoming law — on or before 31 December 2027. Online-poker-only laws, sports-betting laws, lottery iLottery products and sweepstakes measures do not count; a change to Nevada's poker-only regime counts only if it authorises full online casino. Resolves NO otherwise. Launch is not required — enactment is the event.
Resolving source: The enacting state's official legislature record (signed enrolled bill / session law)
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.