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The Lab · interactive

House-edge comparison: 19 bets side by side, each on stated rules

Predict which of four bets costs the least on average, then compare 19 rows sorted by house edge, each with the rules it assumes. A stake slider turns each percentage into an expected loss per bet.

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How it works

The tool first asks which of four options loses the least on average over about $500 wagered: blackjack with basic strategy, American roulette, a slot at 96% RTP, or keno. Blackjack is the answer, at about 0.5% on the rules shown. The table then lists 19 rows, each with the game, the bet, the rule the figure depends on, a bar scaled to the highest edge (with a sliver so that 0% still shows), the edge and the expected loss per bet, which is edge × stake. The stake slider runs from $1 to $50 and starts at $10. Filters narrow the list to table games, roulette, slots or side bets, and a button switches between lowest edge first and highest edge first. At $10, 0.46% is 4.6¢, shown rounded as $0.05, and 35.13% is $3.51, more than 76 times as much.

Dice and wheel rows follow from the layouts and printed payouts. Craps uses Pennsylvania's rules: the pass line is 7/495 = 1.41% and don't pass 3/220 = 1.36% per unit initially wagered, with a come-out 12 returning a don't-pass stake, and odds bets pay at true odds, so their edge is 0%. Roulette uses Pennsylvania's paytable: 1/37 = 2.70% with one zero, 1/19 = 5.26% with two, and 3/38 = 7.89% for the five-number bet at 6 to 1. La partage returns half an even-money stake on zero, giving 1/74 = 1.35%. Card rows were computed from the published rules: six-deck blackjack by exact evaluation of basic strategy on one rule set that New Jersey's rules allow (six decks, standing on all 17s and no surrender are the choices made here), insurance as 23/311 = 7.40% at 2 to 1, baccarat by enumerating eight decks under Pennsylvania's third-card table, and the three poker-based games by enumerating every deal on Pennsylvania's paytables with optimal play (in Caribbean Stud, on the player's five cards and the dealer's one up-card, with no knowledge of other players' hands). Video poker is the figure in a paper by Ethier, Kim and Lee published in the UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal: a 99.5439% return on the 9/6 Jacks or Better paytable, or an edge of 0.46%. Keno is a 4-spot ticket from the 20 numbers drawn out of 80: of 1,581,580 possible tickets, 4,845 hit four, 68,400 hit three and 336,300 hit two, paying $100, $3 and $1 per $1, a return of 64.87%. Each figure was recomputed independently for this page.

The rows range from 0% to 35.13%, so the choice of game and bet changes the expected cost of each stake. A lower edge means a smaller expected loss per bet, not a gain: only the free-odds bet has no edge, it cannot be placed without a line bet that keeps its own, and every other row is a long-run cost.

What it leaves out: Rows use different measures. Most are per unit wagered, but the three poker-based rows are per unit of Ante; per unit of total money wagered they are Ultimate Texas Hold'em 0.53%, Three Card Poker 2.01% and Caribbean Stud 2.56%, so they are not strictly like for like with the rest. Blackjack is per unit initially wagered, with a fresh shoe each round and no cut-card effect, and insurance is per unit of the insurance stake, not of the main bet. In places Pennsylvania's payouts are minimums: 'no less than' for roulette and 'at least 8 to 1' for the baccarat Tie, so those rows are the edge at the minimum payout. The keno row is one 2018 lottery pay table, for a $1 base play without the Multiplier; it is not presented as current, and lottery keno is not casino keno. The slot rows are arithmetic (100 minus RTP) and make no claim about any market. The la partage row rests on Britain's 1994 regulations as made, cited as a statement of the rule and not as current law. Lightning Roulette is left out because no public supplier or regulator document that could be identified states its straight-up return; the game's in-play help screen needs a live session and was not read. The Banker row takes commission at exactly 5%; Pennsylvania lets a casino round the commission to 25¢ or the next highest multiple of 25¢, which adds slightly on small bets. Side bets beyond those listed, other rule sets and the variance of each bet are also left out. Meant for adults (18+) as an educational comparison, it cannot change the edge of any real game.

Sources

Checked on 2026-11-09. Independent, not affiliated. 18+.

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