Will the Dutch bill with cross-operator deposit limits open for public consultation by 30 September 2027?
75%
Base rate — the comparison class
Of 13 dated statutory gambling-regime milestones (non-tax) tracked in our regulator corpus for 2024–2026 (the class counted on the Finland launch question), 12 took effect on their announced date. That class counts fixed statutory dates; the state secretary's consultation target for this bill is only 'begin 2027' — a ministerial statement, not a statutory date — so this base rate is an optimistic anchor, partly offset by the roughly nine months of slack our resolution date allows beyond the stated target. (12 of 13 ≈ 92%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 75% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 12/13 base rate with our maximum downward adjustment (0.15, rounded to step): the target is a soft ministerial commitment for a multi-component bill (limits plus advertising and bonus bans), and Dutch gambling-law timelines have habitually slipped. Capped because the cabinet publicly committed to the package on 12 June 2026, the Kansspelautoriteit reports the technical solution for overarching limits is within reach, and the question allows until 30 September 2027 against a 'begin 2027' target. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if the bill revising the Remote Gambling Act announced by the Dutch cabinet on 12 June 2026 — including overarching cross-operator deposit limits with a financial-capacity test (alongside the advertising and bonus bans) — is published for public internet consultation on internetconsultatie.nl on or before 30 September 2027. A consultation on a split bill counts if it covers the cross-operator deposit-limit measures. Resolves NO if no such consultation has opened by that date.
Resolving source: internetconsultatie.nl — the Dutch government's public consultation register
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.