Will the Netherlands change its 37.8% gambling tax with effect on or before 1 January 2028?
45%
Base rate — the comparison class
In the five Dutch tax years 2022–2026 tracked in our corpus, the kansspelbelasting rate changed with effect in two: 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025 and 34.2% to 37.8% on 1 January 2026; it was flat at 30.5% in 2022–2024. We count tax years with an effective rate change. (2 of 5 ≈ 40%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 45% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 2/5 base rate, adjusted up 0.05: the Ministry of Finance has scheduled a formal evaluation of the gambling tax for 2027, which tees the rate up for the Belastingplan 2028, and receipts are underperforming (the Miljoenennota 2027 projects 2027 revenue below 2026), strengthening the sector's case for a cut. Kept below one-in-two because the Belastingplan 2027 left the rate untouched, so a change must clear a full new budget cycle. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if a change to the kansspelbelasting — any increase, decrease, or a differentiated rate structure replacing the uniform 37.8% — is enacted and takes effect on or before 1 January 2028, per the amending law as promulgated in the Staatsblad (for example via the Belastingplan 2028). Resolves NO if 37.8% is still the uniform rate in force on 1 January 2028 with no enacted change effective by that date.
Resolving source: Staatsblad / Ministerie van Financiën (rijksoverheid.nl) — the Wet op de kansspelbelasting as amended
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.