Will Sweden enact a change to its 22% gambling tax with effect during 2027?
20%
Base rate — the comparison class
In the eight calendar years of Sweden's licensed gambling regime tracked in our corpus (2019–2026), the gambling-tax rate changed with effect in one: the 18%-to-22% rise on 1 July 2024. We count jurisdiction-years with an effective rate change; supervision-fee updates do not count. (1 of 8 ≈ 13%)Forecast history — append-only
| date | p | why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 20% | Opening forecast — anchored on the 1/8 base rate, adjusted up (+0.07, to step): no amending proposal has been remitted as of opening, but a newly elected Riksdag (general election 13 September 2026) makes the 2027 budget cycle unusually open, the differentiated-tax fight (ATG's 18%/26% proposal versus BOS/SPER opposition) is escalating, and Sweden's 2024 change showed the cycle can run from spring bill to mid-year effect within one year. |
Resolution criteria — pre-registered
Resolves YES if a change to the Swedish gambling tax (spelskatt) — any increase, decrease, or a differentiated/split rate replacing the uniform 22% of gross gambling revenue — is enacted and takes effect on any date in calendar 2027, per the promulgated amending law in Svensk författningssamling. Resolves NO if the uniform 22% rate is still in force, unchanged, through 31 December 2027. A change enacted in 2027 but effective only in 2028 or later resolves NO.
Resolving source: Sveriges riksdag / Svensk författningssamling (riksdagen.se) — the Gambling Tax Act (lag om skatt på spel) as amended
About this question
Honesty note. This is an estimated probability from base rates and dated signals — not certainty, and not advice. Rare shocks are structurally hard to forecast; our full methodology and live accuracy are public. We never forecast game outcomes.